After Iran Gets the Bomb – Foreign Affairs
Iran’s nuclearization would make the Middle East a more dangerous place: it would heighten tensions, reduce the margin for error, and raise the prospect of mass catastrophe. The international community should not let up on its efforts to stop Iran’s progress. But given the mullahs’ seeming indifference to the benefits of engagement, U.S. policymakers must consider now what to do if Iran does get the bomb. Containment would be neither a perfect nor a foolproof policy. The task of foiling Iran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah would be difficult, as would countering Iran’s support for terrorist and subversive groups in the region. The need to gain favor with Arab dictatorships would likely tempt Washington to shelve its calls for domestic political reforms in those countries — even though such reforms could diminish Iran’s ability to meddle there by improving the lot of local minority Shiites who might otherwise be susceptible to Tehran’s influence. Maintaining great-power support for pressure on Iran could require overlooking objectionable Chinese and Russian behavior on other matters. Containment would not be a substitute for the use of force. To the contrary, its very success would depend on the willingness of the United States to use force against Iran or threaten to do so should Tehran cross Washington’s redlines. Applying pressure without a commitment to punishing infractions is a recipe for failure — and for a more violent and dangerous Middle East – by James M. Lindsay and Ray Takeyh