Archive for February, 2010

(PDF) – At the beginning of February, ISAF sources announced that a major military offensive was about to be mounted in Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan. This was Operation Moshtarak (“together”), involving 15,000 US, British and Afghan National Army troops, and would concentrate on clearing Taliban and other paramilitary groups from two areas, one of… »

(PDF) – On February 9, the London-based Centre for European Reform released a brief by Franklin Miller, George Robertson, and Kori Schake criticizing the new German government for seeking “the withdrawal of all U.S. nuclear weapons from Germany.” The authors’ international standing makes their essay worthy of debate. The three authors report that NATO now… »

in this issue:
*From black sheep to aliens – Safa A. Hussein
*More foreign than domestic interest – Saad N. Jawad
*Cinderella liberty – Mark Perry
*The Iranian dimension – Sadegh… »

Iran’s nuclearization would make the Middle East a more dangerous place: it would heighten tensions, reduce the margin for error, and raise the prospect of mass catastrophe. The international community should not let up on its efforts to stop Iran’s progress. But given the mullahs’ seeming indifference to the benefits of engagement, U.S. policymakers must… »

Years after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the associated termination of cooperation and a strong alliance between Cuba and Russia, both states are now working overtime to revive the relationship which once brought the world to the brink of nuclear war when the Soviet Union covertly installed nuclear missiles on the Caribbean island…. »

The pressure on Turkey’s beleaguered military has intensified after eight senior commanders were formally charged today with trying to topple the Islamist-rooted government in a coup. The move further raised the stakes as the army’s chief of staff, General Ilker Basbug, prepared to meet Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan for crisis talks aimed at… »

(PDF) – The historically coveted region of Abkhazia has become even more dependent on Moscow since Russia’s controversial recognition a year and a half ago. Russia is financing half the region’s budget, and against vigorous Georgian protests, it is spending $465 million to refurbish existing and build new military installations in the picturesque Black Sea… »

Amid the growing war jitters infecting much of the Middle East and fears Iran may seek to close the Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz, a key oil artery, there are growing concerns that jihadists in Yemen plan to block another maritime choke point to disrupt oil… »

(PDF) – in this issue:
*Russian-Chinese Relations: Current Trends and Future Prospects
*Sino-Russian Relations 2009 to 2010: A Perspective from China
*Sino-Russian Energy Relations: True Friendship or Phony Partnership?
*Statistics: Foreign Trade Relations
*Opinion Po ll: Mutual Perceptions
*Map: Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean… »

Strengthening China’s military presence in Latin America is one of the many manifestations of Beijing’s increased activity on the international stage. Arms sales is a subset of the Chinese military’s growing involvement in Latin America. Yet, Chinese arms sales represent a small portion of its military sales and Latin America’s arms purchases from around the… »

In English, Français, Español
Despite the recent economic downturn, the use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) services, such as mobile phones and the Internet, continues to grow worldwide. By the end of 2009, there were an estimated 4.6 billion mobile cellular subscriptions, corresponding to 67 per 100 inhabitants globally (Chart 1). Last year, mobile… »

Religion has been a major force in the daily lives of individuals and communities for millennia. Yet recent data show that the salience of religion is on the rise the world over. Once considered a “private” matter by Western policymakers, religion is now playing an increasingly influential role—both positive and negative—in the public sphere on… »

The European Union has entered a new phase. The Lisbon Treaty enables the Union to take an important step forward in closer cooperation and greater integration. Brussels aims to support its new foreign policy with a wide range of instruments. Whether or not it can make the most of those instruments will determine whether the… »

Venezuela is one of the world’s largest exporters of crude oil and the largest in the Western Hemisphere. In 2008, the country was the eighth-largest net oil exporter in the world. The oil sector is of central importance to the Venezuelan economy: it accounts for more than three-quarters of total Venezuelan export revenues, about half… »

Since 2001, over 100 Australians have been killed in terrorist attacks overseas. The threat from terrorism is real, persistent and evolving. This White Paper outlines the Government’s assessment of the threat from terrorism and how we will deal with that threat. It is the first such White Paper to bring together both the international and… »

(PDF) – Protecting and nurturing a fragile peace is a critical role of the United Nations. This endeavour depends upon a coalition of will and action on the part of multiple actors: the Security Council, in terms of setting mandates; the Member States, in their commitment of personnel and financial and material resources; the host… »

The Eurostat monitoring report, based on the EU set of sustainable development indicators,
provides an objective, statistical picture of progress towards the goals and objectives of the EU
sustainable development strategy. It is published every two years and underpins the European
Commission’s progress report on the implementation of the strategy. The statistics covered illustrate the range of issues… »

At first glance, the Sunni political scene in Iraq on the eve of the March 7 parliamentary elections appears to be an incoherent mosaic of political parties. There are two main coalitions, however, that are expected to win most of the Sunni vote; the remaining parties reflect the community’s diverse ideological and political views… »

Controversy over the accuracy of a bomb scanner used by security officials in insurgency-hit areas of southern Thailand has raised new questions about the military’s procurement processes in the wake of ramped up spending since a 2006 coup. After a steady nine-year decline in the military’s budget following the 1997 financial crisis, defense spending quadrupled… »

Le nouvel accord de défense signé mercredi avec le Gabon ne prévoit plus, à l’inverse des anciens accords de défense liant la France à ses anciennes colonies africaines, d’intervention automatique de Paris en cas de menace extérieure comme intérieure. Après le Cameroun et le Togo, le Gabon est le troisième pays africain à réviser ainsi… »

Imperial collapse may come much more suddenly than many historians imagine. A combination of fiscal deficits and military overstretch suggests that the United States may be the next empire on the precipice – by Niall… »

(PDF) – Since the end of the Cold War, Finland’s security and defence policy has undergone significant changes. EU membership as well as convergence with NATO have supplemented Finland’s traditional involvement in UN missions. They are the visible reflection of an intensified strategy of cooperation, which is also seen in Finland’s participation in international crisis… »

The Russian government is welcoming anticipated talks with the European Union (EU) to negotiate a nuclear partnership agreement that would facilitate nuclear trade and exchange of knowledge on safety… »

As the crisis winds down, policymakers need to formulate and begin to implement strategies for exiting from crisisrelated intervention policies. The overarching objective is to attain strong, sustained, and balanced growth. This requires large scale fiscal adjustment when the recovery is securely underway, normalizing monetary policy while unwinding crisis monetary measures, gradually withdrawing financial sector… »

Moscow needs a better understanding of where the vast oil and natural gas resources in the country are going, the Russian energy minister said. Sergei Shmatko, the Russian energy minister, called for a monitoring system to follow the movement of oil and natural gas in the… »

Just weeks ago, Germany formally relinquished its title as the world’s top exporter to China. For 2009, China reported that its exports totaled $1.2 trillion as compared to Germany’s $1.1 trillion. The U.S. lost this title in 2003, when Germany surpassed American exports. What a difference a decade… »

Northeast India, where seven Indian states with different ethnic groups straddle three international borders, has always been a boiling pot of emotions and grievances. The rise of China and the spread of Islamist militancy have now injected a new dynamic. China’s increasingly strident claim to India’s Arunachal Pradesh and the Pakistani intelligence agency’s effort to… »

Iran’s dramatic arrest of the leader of Jundallah comes at a crucial juncture for Tehran in its nuclear standoff with the United States. Should Abdulmalik Rigi divulge embarrassing details of US involvement with the Pakistan-based terrorist group, which is known to be linked with al-Qaeda, the fallout could weaken the entire American position – by… »

In recent years, and especially since the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri, Syria-Egypt relations have been very tense, owing to essential disagreements on the issues of Palestine, Lebanon, and Iran – to the point of a ‘cold war’ between the two countries. Even today, when Saudi Arabia and Jordan, Egypt’s allies… »

According to Monday’s Financial Times, the US is hoping that by pushing Saudi Arabia to sell more crude oil to China, it will help China to be less dependent on oil from Iran and more willing to support sanctioning Iran. It’s true that Iran is an important crude oil supplier to China. But it is… »

This Council on Hemispheric Affairs research paper ynthesizes current developments regarding environmentally-driven human migration –and more specifically, migration caused by the environmental manifestations of anthropogenic climate change– which are capable of exposing their potential harmful effects in Central and South America, as well as the Caribbean. Although this region has received far less media attention… »

NATO has at least two big challenges that will determine its future as the world’s strongest military alliance. One is on the battlefield in Afghanistan, where the war against al Qaeda and the Taliban has drained its resources and political will for several years. The Dutch government collapsed last weekend in large part because the… »

Le chef des rebelles sunnites avait revendiqué de spectaculaires attentats contre les… »

Iran is conducting what U.S. officials say is a broad covert-action campaign to influence Iraq’s elections next month, pumping money and other assistance to its allies. The best way to counter this assault, American officials have decided, is by exposing it publicly – by David… »

Speaking to Haaretz earlier this week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defined for the first time his vision of the future: Israel as a global technology leader, grounded in its values and moving toward peace from a position of power. You can like the vision or hate it, accept it or reject it, but now it… »

Beijing is monitoring the evolving United States-led Iran sanctions campaign with alarm and – as conflicting responses to an Israeli initiative indicate – some uncertainty. It suspects the Barack Obama administration may be as interested in leveraging the Iran crisis in order to reassert America’s world leadership at China’s expense as it is in removing… »

Five years ago, when oil prices were climbing steadily and economists were stoking fears about peak oil and gas, it seemed that major energy producers like Russia were holding all the cards. Then-president Vladimir Putin spoke of his country as an “energy superpower” and used energy supplies as a blunt instrument of Kremlin foreign policy…. »

The United Nations’ drug law enforcement body has reprimanded Latin American countries that have decriminalized narcotic use, delivering a blow to the growing movement looking for a change in drug policy in the region. The U.N. body says it is particularly concerned by a 2009 law in Mexico that decriminalizes possession of small amounts of… »

The preliminary peace treaty signed Tuesday night between the most powerful rebel movement in Darfur and the Sudanese government is the culmination of a shift in regional politics that could help bring Darfur’s sputtering conflict to an end, Sudan observers… »

While the Obama administration seeks to end government-funded human spaceflight through a budget proposal that would terminate NASA’s Constellation Program, critics question the wisdom – and safety – of turning over human space exploration to the private… »

This month Romania has been a source of unpleasant news for Moscow. President Traian Basescu agreed to host ground-based medium-range missile interceptors on Romanian territory as part of the U.S. missile defense project. The plans call for the ground-based version of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System (Aegis BMD) with SM-3 missiles to be deployed… »

The EU has quietly suspended a visa ban on rebel leaders in Moldova in the hope of reviving peace talks on one of Europe’s Cold War-era conflicts. The decision, taken by foreign ministers on Monday (22 February), allows 16 people from the de facto government of the breakaway Transniestria region to enter the EU for… »

Today’s resumption of talks between India and Pakistan coincides with a strategic shift in the region, with Pakistan rounding up a series of high-level Taliban commanders, and the founder of the group behind the 2008 Mumbai attacks advocating dialogue between the two… »

Tymoshenko refused to admit her defeat. Moreover, she told the nation that she refuses to recognize Yanukovych as president. This may undermine Ukraine’s political stability. Yanukovych will have to oust Tymoshenko from the government as soon as possible, if he wants the country to be governable. A new coalition in parliament looks the best option… »

Leading energy and mining firms from Russia, China, Japan, France and Canada have already invested billions in the country. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, is seeking to leverage its ore into a larger role in the global nuclear… »

The C.I.A. and its Pakistani counterpart, the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence, have a long and often tormented relationship. And even now, they are moving warily toward conflicting goals, with each maneuvering to protect its influence after the shooting stops in Afghanistan. Yet interviews in recent days show how they are working together on tactical operations,… »

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia are probing a deal under which Moscow could provide the Afghan military with helicopters and possibly others forms of assistance. In return, Russia might gain a voice in the shaping of international security policy for Afghanistan, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told. During the Moscow visit, Russian officials… »

Leaders from Latin America and the Caribbean agreed Tuesday to form a new regional group that brings Cuba into the fold but excludes Canada and the United States. Some of the divisions within the group were on full display during the two-day meeting on Mexico’s Caribbean coast, and most of the details of the new… »

(PDF) – We estimate that as of late 2009, Russia had approximately 4,600 nuclear warheads in its operational arsenal: roughly 2,600 strategic warheads and 2,000 nonstrategic warheads—a slight decrease from last year’s levels. An additional 7,300 warheads are estimated to be in reserve or awaiting dismantlement, for a total of approximately 12,000 nuclear warheads, which… »

France’s foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, has alarmed the Israeli government with his recent statement that “one can envision the proclamation soon of a Palestinian state, and its immediate recognition by the international community, even before negotiating its borders.”Israel fears that this will develop into a full blown European Union initiative and has warned that with… »