Analisi

Tracking Chinese Investment: Western Hemisphere Now Top Target – Heritage Foundation

China has at least $2.5 trillion in foreign exchange and must, due to its own balance of payments rules, invest it all overseas. Most unavoidably goes into American bonds, the only market big enough to absorb it. However, since the beginning of 2005, the PRC has invested almost $200 billion in foreign assets outside bonds…. »

Pandemic Preemption. A U.S. Strategy for Infectious Disease Control – USIP

The spread of old and new infectious diseases constitutes both a threat to U.S. and global security and peace and an opportunity for the United States to burnish its international image through strengthening foreign capacity in infectious disease surveillance and response. Despite an increase in overall U.S. expenditures on global public health, U.S. policy is… »

Mekong Tipping Point: Hydropower Dams, Human Security and Regional Stability – Stimson Center

The October 1991 Paris Peace Accords on Cambodia closed the book on four decades of bitter conflict in the Mekong region of Southeast Asia. The Accords created new opportunities for broad-based economic and social development based on reconstruction, renewal and regional economic development in the 795,000 square kilometer Mekong River Basin, sometimes called the… »

The Role of Pipelines in Regional Cooperation – Brookings Institution

Natural resources, such as oil and gas, are commonly viewed as catalysts of conflict. Because individuals, ethnic groups, and governments often see control of scarce resources through the lens of a zero-sum game, they compete with each other over ownership. Competition can easily spill into conflict. For this reason, it may seem odd to ask… »

The Newly Emerging Arctic Security Environment – Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute (CDFAI)

(PDF) – The Arctic is changing and, as a result, is garnering unprecedented international interest.
With warming temperatures, melting ice and greater accessibility to resources in the region, concerns for security in the region are at the forefront of the Arctic states’ attempts to maintain their foothold in the Arctic. All of the Arctic states –… »

Why Palestinians Will Not Hold Elections, at Least for Now – CEIP

Only seven hours remained until the deadline to submit electoral lists to the Central Elections Commission on June 10 when the Palestinian Authority (PA) called off the local council elections scheduled to take place in July. The PA justified its abrupt decision by claiming that such elections could derail a possible reconciliation with the Islamic… »

The EEAS and the EU-India Strategic Partnership – IDSA

In early July the European Parliament approved the formation of a European External Action Service (EEAS) with an overwhelming majority. The nascent but ambitious EEAS primarily aims to achieve coherence and coordination in the bloc’s foreign policy. It would host an expert’s pool by bringing in desk officers working at the European Commission, area experts… »

Russian Analytical Digest No. 82: The Russian Far East

(PDF) – in this issue:
*Putin Is Turning Vladivostok into Russia’s Pacific Capital

*Population Statistics of the Russian Far East

*Russian Opinions on Vigilante Killings of Members of the Militia in… »

Cocaine and Instability in Africa: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean – Africa Center for Strategic Studies

(PDF) – The dollar value of cocaine trafficked through West Africa has risen rapidly and surpassed all other illicit commodities smuggled in the subregion. Experience from Latin America and the Caribbean demonstrates that cocaine traffic contributes to dramatically higher levels of violence and instability. Co-opting key government officials is the preferred modus operandi of Latin… »

The Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization: Origin, Development and Outlook – ADB Institute

This paper discusses the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM); its origin, development and future outlook. It puts forward a number of proposals to make the liquidity support role of the CMIM more effective. It is further argued that the CMIM can bring about major changes to the policy institutional infrastructure of the East Asia region,… »

Lack of Transparency in Russian Energy Trade – CSIS

A major challenge to the new democracies of Central Europe is the corruption and lack of transparency in the importing of oil and natural gas from Russia and other energy producing states once part of the Soviet Union. This situation also undermines good governance and ethical business practices in the large and wealthier countries of… »

Ugandans Edgy Over US Move Against LRA – IWPR

As Washington prepares to unveil a strategy aimed at neutralising the Lord’s Resistance Army, LRA, many in northern Uganda are mindful of how past attempts to deal a knock-out blow to the rebel movement have succeeded only in increasing instability in the region. While welcoming greater support in apprehending Joseph Kony,the leader of… »

A transatlantic defence market, forever elusive? – CER

(PDF) – EU member-states and the US would benefit from more open defence markets across the Atlantic. Military forces would find it easier to co-operate in the field, governments could pay less for defence goods, and the transatlantic relationship would be strengthened. But markets remain fragmented. States are often more concerned with creating jobs than… »

U.S. Drone Activities in Pakistan – CFR

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), often referred to as drones, have become increasingly important in U.S. efforts to strike militants in Pakistani regions bordering Afghanistan. In its first eighteen months, the Obama administration authorized more drone attacks in Pakistan than its predecessor did over two terms. Although targeting terror suspects with UAVs in official combat areas… »

China Building Africa’s Economic Infrastructure: SEZs and Railroads – China Brief

Chinese policymakers see in Africa possible solutions to some of China’s most pressing problems, for instance, Beijing’s need to secure access to energy resources and other vital minerals to sustain the country’s rapid economic growth. Yet Chinese interests in Africa extend beyond energy resources and minerals and clearly include markets, infrastructure development and agriculture. China’s… »

L’Italia e gli Stati fragili in Africa: prospettive e linee d’azione – ISPI

(PDF) – La fragilità dello stato in Africa è sempre più ragione di preoccupazione e inquietudine
nell’ambito della politica internazionale: i fenomeni di instabilità locale, regionale e globale possono infatti prendere l’avvio da situazioni di fragilità, assumendo proporzioni incontrollabili anche al di là del singolo caso. Alcuni organismi internazionali hanno sviluppato una classificazione che permette
di verificare… »

Iraqi Oil Fields Development: Profiles Of Production, Depletion And Revenue – MEES

Between November 2008 and May 2010 the Iraqi Ministry of Oil signed 12 long term technical service contracts covering 14 oil fields. The oil field projects fall in two categories: brown-field and green-fields developments. The brown-field projects are Rumaila, West Qurna Phase 1 (WQ1), Zubair and the Misan group (the Buzorgan, Abu Ghirab and Fawqa… »

Motivazioni e ricadute delle nuove direttrici di politica estera dell’Azerbaigian – ISPI

(PDF) – L’Azerbaigian ha tradizionalmente costituito il principale interlocutore euro-atlantico nella regione del Caucaso meridionale. A fondare la rilevanza regionale di Baku hanno contribuito principal-mente le considerevoli risorse di petrolio e gas di cui il paese dispone e, più in generale, il potenziale ruolo di snodo territoriale per lo sviluppo di un corridoio energetico tra… »

Disaster Politics – Foreign affairs

Governments cannot prevent earthquakes and other natural disasters, but they can prepare for them and ameliorate their effects. Measures to do so are well known. That so many countries in earthquake-prone regions of the world fail to adequately regulate construction, for example, seems to defy logic. It is tempting to suggest that a country’s ability… »

Le infrastrutture energetiche e di trasporto nel Mediterraneo – ISPI

(PDF) – Le riserve di idrocarburi del Maghreb ammontano a circa 8 miliardi di tonnellate (Mt) di petrolio e a 8.500 miliardi di metri cubi (bcm) di gas naturale. Queste risorse sono concentrate prevalentemente in Algeria e in Libia, che possiedono l’88% delle riserve di petrolio (Libia 5,6 miliardi di tonnellate, Algeria 1,4 miliardi) e… »

China’s Policy in the Wake of the Second DPRK Nuclear Test – the Asia Foundation

North Korea’s May 2009 nuclear test has infuriated Beijing. Signaling its extreme dissatisfaction with North Korea’s unrelenting defiance of China’s advice and interests, Beijing voted in favor of a new UN Security Council resolution that includes tougher sanctions than the resolution passed following North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006. China remains firmly committed to… »

The Washington Consensus: Assessing a Damaged Brand – CGD

It is hard to overemphasize the practical and ideological importance of the Washington Consensus in Latin America. The Decalogue of Consensus policies laid out by John Williamson in his 1989 landmark paper became in the minds of advocates and pundits alike a manifesto for capitalist economic development. For its advocates, the Consensus reflected a doctrine… »

Japan Facing a New Latin America – AJISS

Japan today faces a Latin America completely different from the one it knew ten or fifteen years ago. The old Latin America was a continent of hyper inflation and turbulent economics. It was rife with political instability, fluctuating between military/autocratic regimes and moderately authoritarian ones. Internationally, the region was subject to the strong influence of… »

Between Faith and Reason: UK Policy Towards the US and the EU – Chatham House

The UK’s relations with the US and the EU are often viewed as alternative paths to international influence, but Britain should adopt a reasoned, balanced approach to its foreign policy, moving beyond the established primacy of the ’special relationship’ to make the most of opportunities in Europe as well. Britain should rethink its traditional faith… »

Mexico’s Military Malpractice – COHA

President Felipe Calderón’s aggressive counter-narcotics campaign in Mexico has begun to sprout a disturbing trend of abuse emanating from the Mexican armed forces. The human rights violations allegedly authored by the military rest on the underbelly of a drug conflict that has created frenzy throughout much of the country. As the country has seen an… »

Australia’s maritime surveillance capability – ASPI

The ability to know what is going on out in the open ocean is important for a number of reasons. As well as traditional military threats, activities such as people smuggling, drug running and illegal fishing are contrary to the national interest. The problem is that the sheer expanse of the ocean provides natural cover… »

Japan Rebalancing: China Calling – Chatham House

For years Japan’s economic and technological superiority meant that it seemed to belong to a category of its own – an offshore archipelago that had more in common with the United States and western Europe than its immediate neighbours. Now China is challenging Japan for the title of the world’s second largest economy and, against… »

Recalibrating Germany’s and EU’s Policy in the South Caucasus – DGAP

The European Union’s policy towards the South Caucasus is a typical example of the inability of its member states to develop a common policy towards the post-Soviet space. Furthermore, the EU has been slow to adapt to changes in the region, such as, most notably, the rise in power and relevance of Azerbaijan in the… »

Al-Shabaab’s Regionalization Strategy – ISN

It was the biggest militant attack in sub-Saharan Africa since the infamous 1998 al-Qaida bombings of the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam. The two coordinated bombings in Uganda’s capital Kampala killed 74 people and wounded dozens of others watching the World Cup final on 11 July. For al-Shabaab it was a successful… »

The History of BUNCIN: The US Bureau of Narcotics Covert Intelligence Network – Open Democracy

In the Watergate summer of 1972, President Richard Nixon’s adviser for law enforcement, Egil Krogh, and his band of Merry Pranksters, commonly known as the Plumbers, were dreaming up new ways to merge the war on drugs with the political war against “campus bums” and Democrats. One of their more bizarre plots wed the Bureau… »

Prospects For Regime Change in Belarus – Eurasia Daily Monitor

The approach of a new election always leads political analysts in Belarus to revisit a familiar question: is regime change possible or remote? Are Belarusians in general satisfied with the presidency of Alyaksandr Lukashenka? Will the current rift with Russia lead to the downfall of the leading politician in Belarus and, if so, who is… »

China’s Billion-Dollar Aid Appetite – Fp

Back in 2001, I was the lead U.S. negotiator in international talks meant to transform the way that poor countries fight some of the world’s most pernicious diseases — HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. Over the eight years since the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria first launched, China has applied for and been… »

Concentrating Solar Power in China and India: A Spatial Analysis of Technical Potential and the Cost of Deployment – CGD

Coal power generation in China and India could double and triple, respectively, over the next 20 years, which would increase exposure to fuel price volatility, exacerbate local air pollution, and hasten global climate change. Moving to concentrating solar power (CSP), a growing source of utility-scale, pollution-free electricity, would help alleviate these problems, but its potential… »

Balancing on Land and at Sea: Do States Ally against the Leading Global Power? – Belfer Center

(PDF) – Scholars often interpret balance of power theory to imply that great powers almost always balance against the leading power in the system, and they conclude that the absence of a counterbalancing coalition against the historically unprecedented power of the United States after the end of the Cold War is a puzzle for balance… »

Unconventional Gas – A Game Changer For LNG? – MEES

The global gas market is regionally fragmented, with exports being largely driven by pipeline and to much lesser extent LNG. The LNG portion, currently accounting for less than 10% of total gas demand, is of particular relevance to the GCC due to Qatar’s position as the world’s largest supplier. Historically Qatar used to ship its… »

Actions, Not Just Attitudes: A New Paradigm for U.S.-Arab Relations – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

The latest Pew poll on Middle Eastern political behavior illustrates the media’s post-9/11 tendency to report on America’s standing on the Arab street — without analyzing whether attitudes toward the U.S. have any significant effect on actual Arab behavior. To remedy this striking diagnostic gap, The Washington Institute presents a new study that utilizes hard… »

Military Action Against Iran: Impact and Effects – Oxford Research Group

This report concludes that military action against Iran should be ruled out as a means of esponding to its possible nuclear weapons ambitions. The consequences of such an attack would lead to a sustained conflict and regional instability that would be unlikely to prevent the eventual acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran and might even… »

Who’s who among armed groups in the DRC east – IRIN

Armed groups have caused severe suffering in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) over the years. Below are listed some that are active in the Kivu region. This information is gathered from various… »

Israel’s Jewish Divide – ISN

Often sidelined by the media’s focus on security issues, the culture war between secular and religious Jews and within the religious community itself continues to be a defining feature of modern Israeli society – by Dominic… »

The Political Economy of Piracy in the South China Sea – Naval War College Review

(PDF) – This article attempts to analyze piracy through the perspective of political economy, with an emphasis on state and market stakeholders and on the economic, technological, and institutional factors affecting ocean governance of piracy. The major area of concern here is the South China Sea, where approximately half of the world’s reported incidents of… »

China flexes its naval muscle – Asia Times

China this week again used the East China Sea as a setting for military maneuvers and exercises that it knew would rattle the United States and its allies. After recently calming Japanese concerns about rising tensions in this area, China shut down all vessel traffic in a large zone off the coast of Zhejiang as… »

Mexico Energy Data – EIA

In 2009, Mexico was the seventh-largest oil producer in the world, and the third-largest in the Western Hemisphere. State-owned Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) holds a monopoly on oil production in the country and is one of the largest oil companies in the world. However, oil production has begun to decrease, as production at the giant Cantarell… »

China-India Relations: Regional Rivalry Takes the World Stage – China Security

This year marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between India and China. The pleasantries accompanying this event will strengthen the bilateral relationship, which has significantly improved in recent years amid growing levels of economic interaction, political cooperation on international issues (ranging from climate change to agricultural subsidies) and confidence-building initiatives, including… »

Internal Conflict in Lebanon Over Control of Oil and Gas Resources – MEMRI

The recent discovery of a large natural gas field off the Israeli coast, near Haifa, sparked an intense conflict in Lebanon between the camps of Prime Minster Sa’d Al-Hariri and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri – an ally of Hizbullah – over the control of Lebanon’s potential oil and natural gas resources, which could generate enormous… »

Syria Energy Data – EIA

Syria is the only significant crude oil producing country in the Eastern Mediterranean region, which includes Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza. In 2009, Syria produced about 400,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) of crude and other petroleum liquids. Oil production has stabilized after falling for a number of years, and is poised to… »

Prisoners of the Caucasus – Foreign Affairs

The Russian government seems to have few creative ideas about how to deal with the turmoil in the region, which has become the epicenter of routine political violence in the country. It has tried to will the conflict into a sort of resolution, with little result. In April 2009, the Kremlin announced the end of… »

Beijing’s Tightrope Walk on Iran – CEIP

(PDF) – China’s stance toward Iran is driven by several very important interests. Front and center among these are two critical strategic imperatives that exist in considerable tension with one another. On the one hand, Beijing wants to strengthen its political and economic ties with all the key powers in the Middle East, including Iran…. »

A global China policy – ECFR

China now affects every global issue from trade and the economy to climate change and nuclear proliferation, as well as every region from Africa to the Middle East. Europe therefore needs to reframe its China policy in global terms. Instead of thinking of their relationship with China in bilateral terms,
EU member states need to take… »

Public Sees a Future Full of Promise and Peril – Pew Research Center

Life in 2050: Amazing Science, Familiar Threats. Large majorities of Americans expect that computers will be able to carry on conversations (81% say this definitely or probably will happen) and that there will be a cure for cancer (71%). About two-thirds (66%) say that artificial arms and legs will outperform real limbs while 53% envision… »

‘The Sun in the Sky: the relationship between Pakistan’s ISI and Afghan insurgents’ – LSE

(PDF) – Many accounts of the Afghan conflict misapprehend the nature of the relationship between
Pakistan’s security services and the insurgency. The relationship, in fact, goes far beyond contact and coexistence, with some assistance provided by elements within, or linked to, Pakistan’s Intelligence service (ISI) or military. Although the Taliban has a strong endogenous impetus, according… »